Predicting the collapse of the Mexican Nation-State. Mexico is once again in the headlines. Oil production continues to fall, border violence is up, and the government is preparing for a showdown with the drug cartels. The Mexican state will collapse, ushering in the beginning of the end of the Nation-State. The US military’s Joint Forces Command issued their Joint Operating Environment 2008 report recently that listed Mexico and Pakistan as the most likely states to collapse in the immediate future (PDF, see p.35 for analysis of Mexico). Even 60 minutes ran a segment about the rising drug violence. Root causes of the problems in Mexico are the precipitous decline of Mexican oil production, declining remittance incomes being sent home by migrant workers in America, declining tourist revenues, and lower revenue per barrel of oil exported. Clearly the drug cartels smell blood—-and tactics like forcing the resignation of the Juarez police chief by killing one or more police officers every 48 hours demonstrate their desire for a decisive engagement. Additionally, the motivation behind a recent truce among rival drug cartels may be to facilitate a joint offensive against the government.
Overt Ops: : The US military has briefed the president on the US military capability to influence or intervene, presumably on the side of the government, in the growing civil war between the Mexican government and the drug cartels that control large portions of the country.
According to the The Washington Post, March 22, 2009, “Obama Pledges American Agents to Fight Mexican Drug Cartels. President Obama is finalizing plans to move federal agents, equipment and other resources to the border with Mexico to support Mexican President Felipe Calderón’s campaign against violent drug cartels.” (Source.)